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These problems were certainly brought on myself by a certain lack of tact. I have pointed out that not only does the emperor have no clothes, but also his tailor has several thousand employees. The EPA Office of Mobile Sources in Ann Arbor writes the air pollution rules, enforces the rules, evaluates how well the rules are working, and writes the computer model that predicts how well the rules will work in the future. This situation is just as much a conflict of interest as if I were asked to evaluate the ability of my own students in chemistry every year, without any external checks. If an optimistic error of only three percent is made each year for 20 years, then predictions are off by a factor of more than two. That is about how wrong the then-current version of the EPA model was found to be when compared independently to urban on-road motor vehicle emissions (W.R. Pierson, A.W. Gertler, and R.L. Bradow, J., Air Waste Manage. Assoc., 40, 1495, 1990). This remote sensor of car emissions is about my fifth invention. The
others have taken off all on their own and are widely used in the small
fields where they are important. Eight years later we are still promoting
remote sensing as an emission test. Why has it taken so long? The amazingly
large investments of human and dollar capital in the status quo are partly
to blame. In 1990, the state of California obtained data that showed their
emission test program was without detectable effect on emissions of cars.
My data showed the same thing, but I was regarded by then as a reasonably
harmless heretic. Their data was withheld from their oversight committee
for two years until they could decide what to do with it. The California
emission testing program costs |
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